Elections Watch: October Update

In a speech before the Washington, DC conservative think tank, American Enterprise Institute, on September 18, 2008, Marisol Argueta, El Salvador's Foreign Affairs Minister, directly appealed to the United States to concern itself with the possibility of a "populist" victory in the upcoming elections.  Argueta urged the audience by stating, "losing El Salvador will be a lose-lose proposition for both the security and national interests for both El Salvador and the United States."  She then implied that the opposition party win could send El Salvador back 30 years to a "time of turmoil," and, quoting former US President Ronald Reagan, that "the security of the United States is at stake in El Salvador."

The Farabundo Martí National Liberation Front (FMLN) denounced Argueta's statements as violations of the Salvadoran Constitution that compromise the sovereignty of the country.  "She emitted compromising declarations that injure national dignity and cause severe damage to foreign relations," denounced Sigfrido Reyes, FMLN Communications Secretary.  Civil society organizations, such as the Foundation for the Study and Application of Law (FESPAD) and the Forum for the Defense of the Constitution (FDC), also publicly denounced the Minister's discourse as a violation of the Constitution.

President Antonio Saca attributed Argueta's remarks to freedom of expression.  "I find no problem in the declarations of the Chancellor Marisol Argueta de Barilla."  When asked whether it is legal for a Minister to participate in electoral campaigning, given that Article 218 of the Salvadoran Constitution prohibits public officials from using their positions in order to participate in party politics, the president assured that she has not committed any violations.

Argueta has defended herself, denying that she was asking for US intervention in the elections, and that her statements did not refer to any political party in general, although her speech made clear allusion to an "orthodox remnant of the guerilla."  In a press release, the Minister stated that she "laments the interpretation that been given to her speech," and that her remarks were poorly interpreted due to the existing "political environment [in El Salvador]....If there is any person that feels they were alluded to or damaged, I lament it profoundly and, in no moment, was this my intention."

US Ambassador Reiterates Position of Non-Intervention in
Upcoming Salvadoran Elections

In other news, US Ambassador to El Salvador, Charles Glazer (at left in photo), reaffirmed the United States' position of neutrality in the upcoming Salvadoran elections while prompting citizens to be vigilant of their own political process to prevent foreign intervention.  Glazer stated, "On numerous occasions, we have declared that our position is that the United States does get involved in domestic politics [in El Salvador] and will not do so....I would ask the media and the people of El Salvador to observe Venezuela with equal attention, because that country is clearly influencing local politics [in El Salvador]."  The influence that Glazer refers to is a subject of an open investigation by the Salvadoran Attorney General with regard to the mixed economy corporation, Alba Petroleum, formed by Venezuela Petroleum and a group of 19 municipalities of the FMLN by means of the Inter-Municipal Association of Energy for El Salvador (Enepasa).

Criticism of "Dirty Campaign" Tactics

The Archbishop of San Salvador, Fernando Saenz Lacalle, has publicly criticized the dirty campaign ads that have been transmitted on radio and television throughout October.  The ads, sponsored by a little known Venezuelan organization called Fuerza Solidaria (Solidarity Strength), claim that the FMLN has "very close" relations with Venezuelan President Huge Chávez, who Fuerza Solidaria classifies as an "enemy of the United States."  The ads raise the issue that if the FMLN were to win the presidential election in 2009, the Temporary Protection Status (TPS) for Salvadorans living and working in the United States would be put in danger, and that remittances would no longer reach the millions of families who currently receive them.  The basis for Saenz Lacalle's criticism is the lack of positive value of the advertisements, as well as the possibility of further political polarization in Salvadoran society.

Salvadoran Ombudsman, Oscar Luna, also publicly criticized the campaign tactics of Fuerza Solidaria, calling them "dirty propaganda."  According to the Human Rights Ombudsman (seen at right), it is not acceptable to "use the image of a person to damage his dignity, integrity, and subjective honor, nor is it correct to use photographs of a president of another country in other to place in doubt the governance and candidacy of a political party."  Luna has classified the messages as confrontational rather than educational, in violation of the "No Aggression Pact" promoted by the Human Rights Ombudsman's office and signed by the different political parties of El Salvador, and he has asked the Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE) to make a pronouncement regarding the advertisements.  "[The Tribunal's] pronouncement will contribute to guaranteeing a transparent electoral process without violence."

The Salvadoran Electoral Code establishes that only duly registered political parties may participate in campaigning, and that propaganda intended to defame, insult, or slander will be punished in conformity with the law.  Sanctions may only be applied if the Electoral District Attorney investigates the case.  To date, neither the TSE nor the Electoral District Attorney, Elena Margarita Morán de Mejía, has made any public comment regarding the "dirty campaign."

Jaime Handal, Fuerza Solidaria Representative in El Salvador,
Assumes Responsibility for Fuerza Solidaria Campaign

Jaime Handal has taken responsibility for launching the Fuerza Solidaria campaign as an "educational strategy."  Handal is best known as the unsuccessful ARENA mayoral candidate of San Salvador; he is currently running for a position as a substitute member of the Legislative Assembly for the ARENA party.  Rodrigo Ávila, ARENA's presidential candidate, defended the ARENA party, stating that although Handal is a member of the party, Handal is dessiminating the advertisements in role as a citizen.

Alejandro Peña Esclusa, the founder of the Fuerza Solidaria and former presidential candidate for Venezuela in 1998, has denied that the organization is carrying out a "dirty war" campaign against the FMLN presidential candidate, Mauricio Funes.  Peña Esclusa has asked Funes "to speak frankly" about the supposed links between the FMLN and the FARC, a leftist guerilla group in Colombia, and Hugo Chávez.  He has also said, "You and your party want to silence our voice because you do not tolerate anyone who tells you the truth; you do not allow anyone to discover you or the people to know you or the people to know who you are."

To watch the television ads financed by Fuerza Solidaria, click here.

To see Channel 21's investigative news broadcast  about the dirty campaign, click here.

ARENA Picks VP Candidate, Arturo Zablah

Five months before the Salvadoran presidential election, the Republican National Alliance's (ARENA) candidate, Rodrigo Ávila, announced his pick for Vice President, Arturo Zablah.  Zablah is a business man with Capri Industries, S.A., who served as Minister of the Economy under the Alfredo Cristiani ARENA administration, and later as president of the Executive Commission of Port Authority (CEPA) during the Armando Calderón Sol ARENA administration.  Since leaving CEPA in the mid-1990s, Zablah transformed in into a tough critic of the ARENA administration, especially with regard to economic policies, such as the dollarization of the Salvadoran economy in 2001.  ARENA's VP pick has been most recently known for when he offered himself as a presidential candidate for whichever political party would be interested in supporting his bid to secure the presidency earlier this year.  However, that proposal resulted fruitless, which has allowed him to be available to serve as the VP candidate on the ARENA ticket next March.

Latest Public Opinion Polls

The Francisco Gavidia University's Center for Public Opinion recently polled 1,628 people of voting age in El Salvador about their pre-election preferences for the upcoming 2009 elections.  When asked to assess the media's coverage of the ARENA and FMLN candidates, 86.7% of those surveyed believe the media favors one candidate over another, with 96.5% saying that ARENA receives more positive coverage.  67% of those polled believe that the FMLN presidential candidate, Mauricio Funes, will implement change, while 60.9% believe Rodrigo Ávila, the ARENA presidential candidate, will maintain the same policies as the current ARENA administration. 

The FMLN has held a steady lead over ARENA in various pre-election polls, and the latest University of Central America (UCA) poll affirms that lead.  The UCA's Institute for Public Opinion (IUDOP) survey polled 1,257 people throughout El Salvador in September 2008 with regard to their opinions on the 2009 electoral process.  Reflecting on the current ARENA administration headed by President Antonio Saca, 54.5% of those surveyed think the situation has worsened under his administration, while an overwhelming 81.3% believe the country needs a change in direction.  Many thought the majority parties had maintained their reputations - 45.6% perceiving that ARENA's reputation had not changed and 40.8% perceiving that the FMLN's reputation has not changed.  Of those who thought the parties' reputations had changed, 35.6% felt that ARENA's image had worsened whereas 37.1% felt that the FMLN's image had improved.

On the subject of voter turnout, 86.2% stated that they would vote on Election Day, 8.4% do not plan on voting, and 5.3% do not know if they will make it to the polls.  What is most worrisome about the results of the survey is that 54.4% of those polled have little or no faith in the 2009 electoral process and 55% predict fraud in the upcoming election.

Below are the graphs of the six most recent public opinion polls detailing voter preferences for the 2009 presidential election and the percentage point differences between the candidates.  To download the original surveys, click here.

- Researched and written by Michelle Petrotta, Anna Sanger, and Lars Joon Flydal

1 Diario de Hoy.  October 1, 2008.  "Glazer señala la injerencia de Venezuela."

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